The Future Trends of Facebook Applications: Quit Biting Me
Published by Rodney Rumford July 23rd, 2007 in Facebook, Facebook Applications, Facebook Software, Facebook Trends, facebook widgets.
I was speaking with some of my business associates in London and Silicon Valley this weekend and we were discussing the future of facebook applications. We have been inundated with lightweight applications that are great diversions, time killers and have some social component bordering on the mundane.
Crappy application design, development, invites and engagement threaten to bore many users out of their mind and can actually become quite annoying. We believe the infatuation with the “newness” of these applications will eventually subside to a tolerable level… If 1 more Zombie invite comes to me I will fricking scream: BITE ME!
One of the real challenges for the great applications on facebook is how do they rise above the noise? Most of the low hanging fruit has been plucked. The 15 year old developers that create applications that quit working because they can’t afford a server will also subside to a tolerable level soon. Simply having an application on Facebook will be a minimum requirement in the not too distant future (6-18 months) for businesses that desire to communicate with their target market. More importantly, having a great application on facebook that extends business value will be the desired position to attain. (this is win/win for everyone)
I have some pretty strong opinions on the future of Facebook and I would like to share these insights here today.
1. What does the future hold? More robust and fully integrated applications that extend existing brands, engagement and value to users. These application will sometimes integrate existing functionality from robust web solutions. These applications will also understand how connections work between your networks and your experience will become better as they will be able to customize your unique experience based upon knowledge about you and your network.
2. Why is facebook important for International and Fortune 500 Clients? For a multitude of reasons. First your employees, future employees, clients and future customers are already on facebook. The user base and demographic will continue to broaden and you will be able to share information with them in different and valuable ways. This is not some “teen/college” fad site. It is moving into mainstream and is fundamentally changing the way that people interact, discover and share information. Much in the same way that email changed the way people communicate and Google changed the way people find information: Facebook bridges the gap and actually is changing user behavior in ways that are truly significant and you need to be in the middle of it establishing value, loyalty, branding, interaction, discovery, sales, etc.
3. Why does Facebook matter? Because they have created a platform and point of gravity that people are moving towards. Their is a huge brain trust of smart people working on the facebook platform (both inside and outside of facebook). Facebook has the opportunity to fundamentally change how we communicate (and is already doing so). That is HUGE. It is an “operating system” that has the potential to change user experiences online… just like windows brought personal computers to everyone, facebook has an equally large opportunity to change how i search, communicate, share info, make purchase decisions, communicate in a mobile fashion…etc. Facebook could become intelligent enough to know how to serve me what is valuable (in ways that could be potentially even more compelling than google adwords).
4. Does relationship and WOM marketing apply to facebook? Hell Yes. Here is why. Social networking sites at their most basic level are all about my personal connections, interests and behaviors. Leveraging these connections and behaviors could radically change how marketing messages ever get seen by me (user). Facebook is the ultimate WOM platform. Moe importantly, I am not telling 2 friends… I am instantly telling my network of hundreds/thousands of real world friends and business associates what i think/discovered/believe/etc…
5. Can we please stop throwing food & biting people... facebookers understand what I am saying here. 
The Future of Facebook Applications and companies, businesses and individual users is indeed very promising. It will be fun to go on this wild ride. Disruptive technologies always fascinate me because they fundamentally change the way we communicate. Call me crazy: Edison was called crazy because “no one would ever want to use a telephone”. Remember: phones, fax machines, cell phones, email, websites?… No one knew why they needed a website 10-15 years ago. Now you can’t imagine a world in which a serious business would not have a website.
So what do you think?
Technorati Tags: facebook, facebook applications, blog, technology, facebook trends, communication
I think you need to post almost daily.
Sure, maybe the signal to noise ratio is poor among new apps, but if you’re going to take this blog seriously, post consistently, on maybe an every-other-day basis.
There’s no shortage of bad apps, so I at least expect reviews of those bad apps from faceREVIEWS.com.
duly noted PC. I was actually on vacation and the posting velocity suffered . Don’t worry. We are back at it.
Some great thoughts and yes, do post more often.
Not related to Facebook but your point about people not wanting to use phones is one that will stick with me for sometime. Perhaps instead of asking “why do I want to use something” a better question is “what problem will this solve in my life”.
Things we want are things we fancy which we can easily see. Solutions to problems are things we maybe can’t as easily see even when we are first presented with them.
I believe that the Future of Facebook Applications involve:
1. Better UI and usability.
From a visual/design standpoint, the Facebook Platform imposes a unique constraint - the frame around it. It’s not exactly a blank slate. The design of applications need to be more strategic to make it look coherent, consistent, and FB’ish.
While developers focus on getting their applications out fast, usability and UI took a backseat. There has yet to be a standard for design, but there will be soon. As the good apps get better, FB Platform “Darwinism” will undoubtedly put the focus back on UI and usability.
2. Families.
Hands down the hottest company of 2007, Facebook is the chosen one - the one to rival Google. But in order for that to happen, families need to be on Facebook. Right now there is a lot of focus on friends and associates, but almost nothing for families.
If they can get my mom and dad, and (gasp) my grandpa on Facebook, I will be amazed. It’s a safe bet to say that Zuckerberg and Co. are aware of this and have many things under tight wraps. The fast growing community of developers are also probably addressing this opportunity.
3. Mobile advertising
One of the things that I feel FB does very well is using SMS to add/confirm friends and receive updates. It works very fast and is dead simple.For all those who continue to speculate how they will monetize their platform? Here’s the answer: mobile ads. =)
Nobody, not even Google, has really established any sort of leverage for the lucrative mobile ads industry. Facebook, however, continues to create more leverage every day with new applications. By using the built in FB SMS infrastructure, developers are able to create applications that send sms messages to users. Furthermore, more and more people will have unlimited sms and data.
So picture this: SMS FB Applications = A lot of SMS. A lot of SMS = A lot of space for mobile text ads. And if Google was any indication, text ads = $$$.
Those are my 3 cents. =) Keep up the great blogging Rodney.
Thank you for bringing such nice posts. Your blog is always fascinating to read.
Rodney - I am really enjoying your blog. At SplashCast, we are developing Facebook media channels, applications that act as brands. Our view is that Facebook is an example of a vast media network in its first evolution. With the continuing emphasis on video, Facebook is becoming a place where brands may use applications to distribute their entertainment and information. Profiles, groups and networks marked Facebook’s first phase. Applications will mark the next phase in Facebook’s evolution as a media network. It’s where the brands will go to provide entertainment and relevant information to an influential, intelligent and lucrative community.
Alex,
Glad you are enjoying the blog. I agree that video is indeed a large component of what we will see on facebook. It will also act as a media distribution point for many brands.
Facebook is at the forefront of a massive shift in the way we use the internet. It has the opportunity to become the defacto standard in college and professional social networking. I think it needs to maintain that focus but explore other demographics that “make sense” to the overall community.
Facebook proved that there was much more to social network communities than MySpace. However, new sites that aggregate like minded folks in even more narrow niches is really where things are going to go. Facebook may be the current “hot” platform, but content is really the king. If another social network that had many of the same capabilities emerged for categories such as strictly republicans, or Muslims, or lesbians or people that play chess (chess.com is already doing this) then people will gravitate towards the site where the content meets their immediate needs, interests and core values.
A critical aspect of MySpace was simply kids surfing for people to flirt with and maybe in the long run hook up with. MySpace provides an online service that meets the needs of a particular age demographic in a particular point in time in their life cycle. I guarantee vc’s that understand this will continue to fund new social networking concepts that meet the needs of other demographics (someone mentioned families earlier, which is a perfect example). Think of social networks for kids, teens, college, yuppie, young couple, maternity, new family, second careers, divorcees, mid career, executive level, early retiree, retiree, senior.
Now throw splinter it even further with lifestyle, religion, sex, sexual orientation, political affiliation, national origin, sports affiliation, celebrity infatuation,etc, etc, etc.
At the end of the day, social networking has got very little to do with any specific platform or technology. It’s all about how people organize themselves based on their personal beliefs, core values and social mores’. It’s about involvement in a meaningful community. The widgets, wiki’s, Twitter’s, podcasts, etc will all follow them to the next Facebook. People don’t care if it’s called Facebook or MySpace or whatever, it’s all about where their community resides online.
So basically social networking boils down to sociology 101. Who’da thunk?
Great post Rodney and excellent comments.
My view, which I’m sure most of your readers support, is that Facebook has already reached the tipping point WRT being the MAINSTREAM Social Operating System.
Just like in the early days of graphical user interface operating systems, there were many contenders before, during and after Microsoft Windows’ long march to dominance from Windows 1.0 in 1984 to Windows 3.1 in 1990 and finally Windows 95. The names of these losing graphical user interfaces include Xerox Alto, Xerox Star, Apple Lisa, VisiCorp VisiON, Digital Research GEM, IBM Presentation Manager, Apple Macintosh, XWindows, TopView, etc.
Microsoft took their lead from the DOS world and leveraged it into Windows via the careful courting of the application software developer community. They hammered home that Windows had more sockets in which application developers could plug in their apps and these new applications made Windows more and more attractive to those who had adopted it. No one else could ever release a “better Windows” because they wouldn’t have all of the important Windows applications available on Day One. Microsoft even found a way to dominate in the application space via Excel, Word, etc. and ultimately Office which meant that even if a Windows clone was launched, Microsoft could keep their apps off of the platform and thereby kill it.
Facebook is clearly out to do the same as Microsoft did by building their own versions of the most important apps (e.g., e-mail, photos, videos, groups, etc.). However, they have opened their platform up early enough to application developers to leave lots of crumbs (and even some cakes) around the application table for the 80,000 developer folks who are trying to figure out which of these to go after next.
It now seems unlikely that another Social Operating System will emerge fast enough and be open enough soon enough to catch Facebook. If I were in the number two spot in this market, I would make sure that I emulated the Facebook App API exactly so that any apps written for Facebook would seamlessly work on my platform. Even with this, Facebook probably has some interesting patents/technology in the news/mini feed area that may give them another level of defensibility.
So, while I agree that social networks will sub-divide into sub-areas of interests (e.g., Facebook for democrats, Facebook for families, Facebook for chess nuts, etc.). I think that this will be managed within the Facebook OS via different applications/groups vs. through the creation of new networks outside of Facebook. So, my bet is that within 12 to 18 months Facebook will have 75 to 100 million users and be on the verge of an IPO. This will be when “your grandma and grandpa” and “your employer” finally take notice of Facebook and decide to join. This will then spur their growth to the half a billion user level.
The great news about this is that anyone writing apps now on Facebook has a chance to stake a claim in the very early days of a platform that will swallow the internet and spit out on the other side as something quite new and different. This is what Altura Ventures (see http://www.altura.com) is betting on and we welcome contact at LeeL@altura.com from any Facebook developers with more than 10,000 users.
Biters are usually haters or wanna bes. And they all come out in the wash.
Rodney, this is a good post, and I surely hope your prospects are true. However, I must ask, what evidence do you have that the best designed applications will succeed? Look through the top applications — the ones that are winning are the worst abusers.
Trey,
I have no evidence that the best designed applications will succeed. But based upon history of applications; we should look towards the useful versus the trivial.
More useful apps will have greater staying power. People will eventually tire of the “fun only” applications. There will always be a place for those apps. But from a pure usefulness standpoint; most apps will have attrition after the “newness” wears off.
Why do you use excel or word or powerpoint or any software? Because it solves a problem. Thats where facebook apps will settle out…
I don’t get what the problem is? Don’t people have a choice to decline “getting bitten” or decline “having food thrown at them”? I occasionally get invites that I’m not interested in, and I simply decline. No sweat off my back. People also have the choice to uninstall applications! I say let the silly people use the silly applications, and the serious business people use the more serious applications that are focused on solving problems.
I sure hope they don’t take away the “food fight” application!
I am a grandma and an employer and I’m here.
My whole family is here and we love being able to be in touch daily and play and communicate with other. Physically we are thousands of miles apart, but here, we are together every day. Here we also can instantly tell how everyone is feeling and what they are going through and need. Instantly sharing lives through video and photos is a godsend.
I am an employer. I can be a ‘person’ with my staff and let them know I care and have interests similar to theirs. In this way I am one of them and they become more caring and productive. Here we can share what the workplace has no time or space for. Facebook brings the ability to spot potential problems and deal with them before they are brought to work. Facebook also provides insight into the abilities of potential employees.
Facebook has become my #1 source of news, information, communication, and maintaining relationships. I rarely need to go elsewhere on the net now…. So, Thank You Facebook Team.