Active Directory Authentication Notes – Waikato Linux Users Group Integrating Windows Active Directory with Apache and Subversion. (tags: svn subversion authentication apache LDAP Windows ActiveDirectory) Microsofts Ballmer Does Not Grasp Facebook at …

“Steve also said that in 2 to 3 years 25% of Microsoft’s revenue would come from ads. To make this come true Steve needs a deal with Facebook.”

You are right that this greatly increases the likelihood that they will come to some sort of agreement. Thanks for sharing your insights here.

Trust me, Steve gets Facebook. I know he uses Facebook for both work and personal stuff because he is my friend on Facebook. He also “GOT” facebook more than 2 years ago when he cut the first ad deal with Facebook.

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This recent “fad” reference is just posturing and is probably the best indicator that a serious deal is being negotiated. The ebay write-down of Skype also plays nicely into Microsoft’s desire to get the best deal possible for their 5% of Facebook.

I’ve known Steve for almost 25 years and he wants to increase his bet on Facebook in a big way. However, he and Bill have been playing poker together much longer than that (and therefore longer than Mark Zuckerberg has been alive). So, one can expect a little bluffing and standing up from the table and preparing to walk away on both sides.

My firm bet is that the deal will happen at north of $10 billion, it will involve $500 million in cash and Microsoft will get a guarantee that Facebook won’t sell to Google and Microsoft will get the right to handle CPC ad sales when Facebook opens up their search box to returning more than just people/events/groups/apps. The big question in the deal is the degree to which Microsoft commits to grow facebook’s business users by weaving facebook sign-ups into their Microsoft Office install process.

The reason I can be so sure about this is because Steve also said that in 2 to 3 years 25% of Microsoft’s revenue would come from ads. To make this come true Steve needs a deal with Facebook. When it does happen, color Google green with envy.

Thanks,
Lee

Do I think Facebook will be used in 10 years? Yes. Do I think it will hold near the prominence that it does today? Heck, no.

Almost all technology titans, particularly those with a consumer focus, get knocked down a peg. Apple was king of the hill before the IBM PC. AltaVista was king of the hill of pure search before Google came along. GeoCities was king of the hill before MySpace came along, which was itself king of the hill before Facebook came along.

Will Facebook’s *capabilities* be around in 10 years? Yes, probably in improved forms. But they won’t just be Facebook’s capabilities. The only thing Facebook has that isn’t eminently copyable is its network of users, and there are moves afoot to make social networks more portable between sites. That means Facebook will either have to eschew portable social networks and hope nobody beats them sufficiently at technology to cause an exodus, or Facebook will embrace portable social networks and give up some of their momentum to other niche players. Either way, Facebook’s dominant market position will likely tumble.

This doesn’t mean they’ll be dead, and they can always leverage their current position to move into new markets or offer decidedly different services that keep them a step ahead. Unfortunately, lots of firms think they can do that. Few actually wind up pulling it off (Microsoft and Google are two examples).

So, the odds are stacked against Facebook. Calling it a fad is a bit crass, but it has the ring of truth.